SEA Pacific Briefing 2010 – 3

February 5, 2010

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South East Asia Pacific Briefing 2010 – 5th February

China

China needs to run a continued fiscal deficit and let its real exchange rate rise to rebalance its economy towards domestic demand and thus sustain the impressive growth of recent years, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development {OECD} said on Tuesday. In its Economic Survey of non-member China, the OECD maintained its November forecast of an acceleration in gross domestic product growth to 10.2 percent in 2010 from 8.7 percent last year. China should let its currency rise to cool inflation and help ease economic distortions as it emerges from the global crisis, the OECD said…. A stronger currency, coupled with more social spending, could help to reduce China’s high savings rate, boost consumer spending power and narrow its trade surplus. {Reuters, AP}

India

Maoist violence in India remains a cause for “grave concern”, with rising casualties on all sides, the country’s home minister has said. P. Chidambaram told reporters that nearly 600 civilians had been killed in Maoist violence last year. This was double the number of civilians killed in violence in Indian-administered Kashmir and India’s restive north-eastern states, he said. The rebels are fighting for communist rule in many Indian states. More than 6,000 people have died during the rebels’ 20-year fight. Chidambaram has in the past said the rebels must “abjure violence” before the government can initiate talks with them. One rebel leader, Kishenji, has said the Maoists are willing to talk to the government if it puts off a planned offensive. The rebels have a presence in more than 223 of India’s 600-odd districts across 20 states, according to the government. {BBC}

Japan

Japanese officials are visiting a refugee camp in northern Thailand to interview refugees from Myanmar who are setting to start new lives in Japan, the UNHCR reported Feb.2. This is the first concrete move Japan has taken towards becoming the first Asian nation to resettle refugees from Myanmar, following its announcement in December 2008 that it will take in 90 people from Mae La camp over three years as part of a pilot project. UNHCR selected refugees being interviewed this week based on how long they have been living in the camp, in some cases reaching two decades but with no other solution in sight. “The final decisions as to whether they will be accepted for resettlement rests with Japan,” said agency spokesperson Andrej Mahecic. Barring any glitches, the first refugee family is expected to leave for Japan this September, with 30 refugees set to be resettled every year over three years. {U.N. News Service}

Mongolia

More than 20,000 families are at the risk of going hungry, as temperatures reaching as low as -50 degrees centigrade have killed nearly two million head of livestock in Mongolia, the U.N. agriculture agency reported Feb. 2. One third of the Asian nation’s population leads nomadic lives and depend entirely on livestock for a living. Urgent assistance of USD6 million is needed over the next two or three months to help herders make it through to spring, a rapid needs assessment conducted by the Food and Agriculture Organization {FAO} found. Locally known as dzud, the extreme cold experienced in Mongolia followed a very dry and long summer and fall, during which insufficient livestock feed was produced to provide to the animals for the winter months. So far, it is estimated that economic losses have topped USD60 million. {U.N. News Service}

Nepal

After years of civil war and upheaval, Nepal’s fate now rests with a bickering group of politicians who have less than four months to remake the government, write a new constitution and integrate thousands of former Maoist insurgents into the army they battled for a decade. No one knows for sure what will happen if they fail. “There will be a vacuum, and a danger of relapsing into the old days of conflict,” said Baburam Bhattarai, a top Maoist leader. “Time is running out very fast.” The difficulties stem partly from the Herculean tasks facing the fractious nation. It is trying to turn itself into a republic following centuries of royal rule; it is reorganizing the very structure of the country, creating new states to empower marginalized ethnic groups; it is hoping to cement peace by bringing the Maoists into politics and integrating them into the military. {AP}

North Korea {DPRK}

The top U.N. political official will travel to North Korea next month for wide-ranging talks with the reclusive communist state locked in a nuclear dispute with the West, the United Nations has announced. The world body said that Lynn Pascoe, under-secretary-general for political affairs, would visit North Korea Feb. 9-12 to discuss “all issues of mutual interest and concern in a comprehensive manner.” Pascoe, who will travel as special envoy of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, is a former U.S. ambassador to Indonesia and the most senior U.N. official in six years to visit North Korea. Also in Pascoe’s party of four will be Ban’s deputy chief of staff Kim Won-soo, who like the secretary-general is South Korean, U.N. officials said. The group will also visit China, Japan and South Korea, the U.N. statement said. {Reuters}

Pakistan

A bomb outside a northwest Pakistan girls’ school killed 10 people on Feb. 3 including students and three U.S. soldiers who were training government paramilitary forces, Pakistan’s army said. The U.S. military personnel were in the northwestern valley of Dir “to attend the inauguration ceremony of a school for girls that had recently been renovated with U.S. humanitarian assistance,” the U.S. Embassy said. The U.S. Defense Department is giving training and equipment to the Frontier Corps, which has a leading role in the fight against Taliban insurgents. The Dir Valley is set between two Pakistani districts ⎯ Swat and Bajaur ⎯ where Pakistan’s army has fought intensive campaigns against the country’s Taliban movement. While the military claims it has restored peace in the region, violence periodically spills into Dir, including a bomb explosion that killed three children on Jan. 27. {Bloomberg}

Sri Lanka

Thirty-seven people are being held in Sri Lanka in connection with an alleged plot to assassinate President Mahinda Rajapaksa, state-owned media say. Most of those detained under emergency regulations are military officers, including a brigadier and a colonel, as well as army deserters. On Feb. 1, about a dozen officers were sent to compulsory retirement accused of dabbling in politics. The opposition denies there is any plot and says the government has launched a witch hunt after Rajapaksa won the presidential election a week ago. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka’s election commissioner has rejected opposition allegations of counting fraud. Another pro-government paper says that in addition to the 37 held under the emergency, 20 more people are being questioned. {BBC}

Vietnam

Vietnam said it has raised one billion dollars after tapping the global bonds market for only the second time as the government tries to plug a massive budget deficit and temper inflation. Some of the money will go towards the national budget and the rest will go to state projects including the Dung Quat oil refinery, the state Vietnam News reported. Vietnam’s economy grew 5.32 percent last year but that expansion came at a price, with a budget deficit that official data said reached seven percent of GDP. “The good news is Vietnam has been able to tap the international capital markets,” John Hendra, the U.N. resident coordinator in Vietnam, told reporters, adding that the budget and current account deficits are both “fairly high” and authorities face a challenge to prevent a recurrence of the overheating that pushed inflation to an annual 23 percent in 2008. {AFP}